July 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | July 2025
Five things to watch in the second half
July 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | July 2025
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 16 Messages in Focus 18 Asset allocation implementation 20 US economic outlook 22 Equities 23 US equities 24 Bonds 26 Commodities and listed real estate 27 Foreign exchange
CIO Monthly Livestream
2 July 2025 at 1:00 p.m. ET • Join the event at ubs.com/ciolive • Add to calendar
This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS AG
Singapore Branch, and UBS Financial Services Inc. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of this document.
Publisher
UBS Financial Services Inc.
CIO Global Wealth Management
1285 Avenue of the Americas 8th Floor
This report was published
on 27 June 2025
Solita Marcelli
Authors (in alphabetical order)
CIO Content Design
July 2025 | UBS House View 3
The first half of 2025 was marked by ongoing geopolitical and
policy uncertainty, resulting in sharp swings across asset classes. In recent weeks, however, sentiment has steadied as easing trade concerns, cooler inflation data, and a more dovish Fed have pro- pelled markets back near all-time highs.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect more sta-
ble conditions, shaped by clearer US trade and fiscal direction, Fed easing, and lower Treasury yields. Still, risks to the outlook remain.
Elevated fiscal deficits and renewed trade tensions could dampen
investor confidence and global demand. But in our view, they are unlikely to push the US into a recession. We forecast GDP growth to slow to around 1.5% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, as the impact of tariffs and other policy changes becomes more apparent.
