Quiet...too quiet August 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | August 2025
Investment Strategy Guide:
Quiet...too quiet August 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | August 2025
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 14 Messages in Focus 16 Asset allocation implementation 18 US economic outlook 20 Equities 21 US equities 22 Bonds 24 Commodities and listed real estate 25 Foreign exchange
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Publisher
UBS Financial Services Inc.
CIO Global Wealth Management
1285 Avenue of the Americas 3rd Floor
This report was published
on 25 July 2025
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Authors (in alphabetical order)
Cover image
UBS
CIO Content Design
August 2025 | UBS House View 3
Markets have remained resilient in recent months, reaching record
levels despite persistent uncertainty. But the calm feels uneasy as investors weigh mounting risks beneath the surface. President Trump’s latest tariff threats signal a sharper turn in trade negotia- tions approaching the 1 August trade deadline, while his intensi- fied criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell raises questions about the central bank’s independence. Speculation about removing
Powell has sparked concerns over potential disruptions to mone-
tary policy, though we believe the president is unlikely to take such a step. Despite these uncertainties, markets have shown resilience. Equities remain up around 28% since the April “Liberation Day” low, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently hitting record highs, buoyed by AI optimism and outperformance by mega-cap tech companies. While the surface may appear calm, the underlying risks could still trigger further volatility in the weeks ahead.
