June 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 1639518_4d565fe1-0a80-48f9-b935-b3a367b5e093.pdf 2 UBS House View | June 2025
From liberation to de-escalation
June 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 1639518_4d565fe1-0a80-48f9-b935-b3a367b5e093.pdf 2 UBS House View | June 2025
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 14 Messages in Focus 16 Asset allocation implementation 18 US economic outlook 20 Equities 21 US equities 22 Bonds 24 Commodities and listed real estate 25 Foreign exchange
CIO Monthly Livestream
5 June 2025 at 1:00 p.m. ET • Join the event at ubs.com/ciolive • Add to calendar
This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS AG
Singapore Branch, and UBS Financial Services Inc. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of this document.
Publisher
UBS Financial Services Inc.
CIO Global Wealth Management
1285 Avenue of the Americas 8th Floor
This report was published
on 23 May 2025
Solita Marcelli
Authors (in alphabetical order)
CIO Content Design
1639518_4d565fe1-0a80-48f9-b935-b3a367b5e093.pdf June 2025 | UBS House View 3
Markets found their footing over the past month after President
Trump reversed many of his harshest trade measures. And on the economic front, while consumer sentiment has steadily soured, the sharp deterioration has not yet translated into a slowdown in hard economic data: Retail sales are still positive, the labor market remains resilient, and inflation has surprised to the downside. Additionally, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for second quar- ter growth currently stands at 2.4%.
Still, the full effects of tariffs may become more apparent in the
weeks and months ahead, particularly as inventories stockpiled ahead of policy changes begin to unwind, posing a risk to both inflation and growth. Given the 90-day tariff truce between the
US and China, we believe the US effective tariff rate will settle at
around 15%.
