September 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | September 2025
Charting new highs
September 2025 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 UBS House View | September 2025
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 14 Messages in Focus 16 Asset allocation implementation 18 US economic outlook 20 Equities 21 US equities 22 Bonds 24 Commodities and listed real estate 25 Foreign exchange
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This report was published
on 22 August 2025
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Authors (in alphabetical order)
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September 2025 | UBS House View 3
Markets have continued to climb, with equities setting a string of
all-time records this summer. Robust second-quarter earnings, eas- ing trade tensions, and the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts have supported this momentum. However, investors should remain vigilant as tariff-related margin pressures and inflation risks begin to filter through to prices, posing potential headwinds in the near term. While inflation is likely to move further above the Fed’s 2% target in the months ahead, slowing shelter inflation, which is the largest item in the CPI basket, should help to limit the increase. Moreover, the labor market is exhibiting signs of deterioration, as recent data revealed slower-than-expected job growth. In our view, the down- side risks of the labor market will outweigh inflation concerns, opening the door to easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on 22
August reinforced this outlook, as he delivered a more dovish tone
on rate cuts. We believe Powell is likely to advocate for easing at the
