July 2026 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 of 30 UBS House View | July 2026
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July 2026 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 of 30 UBS House View | July 2026
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 14 Messages in Focus 16 Asset allocation implementation 18 US economic outlook 20 Equities 21 US equities 22 Bonds 24 Commodities 25 Foreign exchange
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Publisher
UBS Financial Services Inc.
CIO Global Wealth Management
1285 Avenue of the Americas 12th Floor
This report was published
on 22 June 2026
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Authors (in alphabetical order)
CIO Content Design
July 2026 | UBS House View 3 of 30
The first half of the year has highlighted a notable dynamic for inves-
tors: Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, elevated inflation, and shift- ing Fed expectations, markets have remained well supported by resilient US growth and the continued expansion of AI.
The US economy has remained robust through the first half of 2026,
supported by strong private demand, tax cuts, and still-accommoda- tive financial conditions. At the same time, inflation has proven more persistent, with recent data reflecting continued pressure from energy, tariffs, and AI-related demand. As a result, the Federal
Reserve has turned more hawkish than expected, adopting a pro-
longed “wait-and-see” stance.
