April 2026 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 of 30 UBS House View | April 2026
Navigating uncertainty, staying resilient
April 2026 | Chief Investment Office GWM | Investment research 2 of 30 UBS House View | April 2026
In this report
04 Monthly Letter 16 Messages in Focus 18 Asset allocation implementation 20 US economic outlook 22 Equities 23 US equities 24 Bonds 26 Commodities 27 Foreign exchange
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This report was published
on 20 March 2026
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
Authors (in alphabetical order)
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April 2026 | UBS House View 3 of 30
Markets are navigating a turbulent environment shaped by geopo-
litical tensions, rapid shifts in artificial intelligence, and ongoing credit market concerns.
With no clear resolution to the US-Iran conflict in sight, concerns
over sustained energy supply interruptions are weighing on inves- tor sentiment. The hostilities have disrupted around 15 million barrels per day of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with LNG supplies heavily constrained. If oil prices remain above USD 120/bbl for more than six months, it would have a meaningful impact on inflation and growth. However, our base case remains for eventual de-escalation and resumption of tanker flows, but crude prices are likely to stay elevated around USD 90/bbl into the end of June. On the Federal Reserve, we believe ongoing down- side risks in the labor market coupled with moderating core goods inflation should allow for two more rate cuts in the second half of the year. Despite elevated risks, US equities have been resilient. The S&P 500 is down modestly year to date, underscoring the market’s ability to withstand uncertainty and maintain strength amid vola- tility. We favor a selective sector approach, with industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials offering both cyclical and secular growth opportunities, while health care and utilities pro- vide defensiveness if economic growth slows. We expect the S&P 500 to end the year higher.
