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Federal Reserve Reports & Analysis
49 public reports. Every entry links to its canonical Wrivid page and original publisher source.
Feb 2, 2026 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: A Decomposition of Balance Sheet Reduction
Benjamin Eyal, Dave Na, and Arsenios SkaperdasSince the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have used the size and composition of their balance sheets to influence financial conditions and economic activity when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. A common measure of the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is the System Open Market Account (SOMA) securities holdings expressed as a share of nominal gross domestic product (NGDP).
Jan 30, 2026 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: Model Perspectives on Supply and Demand Factors behind a Soft Labor Market
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Camilo Morales-JiménezU.S. employment growth slowed down notably in the second part of 2025, and a key question is how much of the weakness stems from labor demand and how much from labor supply. In this note, we examine this question from the point of view of two different models: a statistical model that uses an intuitive interpretation of the joint behavior of employment and wage growth to infer the effects of labor supply and demand (VAR), and a structural dynamic
Jan 16, 2026 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: More Credit, More Debt: New Evidence on Automated Credit Decisions
Vitaly M. Bord, Agnes Kovacs, and Patrick MoranBehind the scenes of every credit card lies an increasingly complex algorithmic infrastructure that determines who receives more credit and when, largely outside the inspection or knowledge of credit card users. Credit card issuers deploy sophisticated algorithms that continuously analyze consumer spending and borrowing behaviors, often increasing credit limits without consumers requesting such changes.
Jan 16, 2026 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: Lessons from Brexit on the Effects of Trade Disintegration
Florencia Airaudo, Johannes Fleck, and Kevin VegaRecent U.S. trade policy changes have rekindled interest in Brexit, as it represents one of the few instances in which another large advanced economy implemented substantial trade policy changes. In this note, we answer two questions: How similar were trade policy adjustments in Brexit to U.S. trade policy changes of 2025? What were the short- and long-run effects of Brexit on the U.K. economy?
Jan 9, 2026 · Macro
Federal Reserve Beige Book
Jan 7, 2026 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: Assessing Recession Risks with State Level Data
Hie Joo Ahn, Yunjong Eo, and Lucas MoyonThis note evaluates recession risks at the national and state levels using a state-of-the-art Bayesian Markov-switching model that distinguishes between full-recovery recessions (U-shaped recessions) and those that generate lasting damage, or hysteresis (L-shaped recessions). While states exhibit considerable heterogeneity in their business-cycle experiences, most saw some degree of hysteresis in the past recessions that occurred prior to the COVID pandemi
Dec 10, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Nov 24, 2025 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: A Note on Recent Dynamics of Consumer Delinquency Rates
Robert Adams, Cord Barnes, Connor Bopst, and Kamila SommerAfter plummeting to all-time lows during the pandemic, delinquencies on credit cards and auto loan debt increased to levels not observed since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), raising concerns about the health of household balance sheets. In this note, we use credit records from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP) — a nationally representative random sample of anonymized Equifax credit bureau da
Nov 19, 2025 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: Implications of Growth in ETFs: Evidence from Mutual Fund to ETF Conversions
Mehmet Saglam and Tugkan TuzunThe growth in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has coincided with outflows from mutual funds. As shown in figure 1, in the past 10 years, there have been strong inflows into equity ETFs while equity mutual funds have experienced notable outflows. The shift from mutual funds to ETFs gives rise to questions about how this trend affects the stocks that these funds hold.
Nov 3, 2025 · Working Paper
FEDS Note: Order Flow Imbalances and Amplification of Price Movements: Evidence from U.S. Treasury Markets
Dobrislav Dobrev, Edith Liu, Joon Kim, and Marius RodriguezThis note provides a novel view on market functioning and argues for the importance of monitoring large directional order flow in understanding notable price moves during periods when liquidity is severely strained. Market turbulence often creates a liquidity mismatch: as volatility increases, liquidity demand surges while supply evaporates.
Oct 29, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Sep 17, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jul 30, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jun 18, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
May 7, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Mar 19, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jan 29, 2025 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Dec 18, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Nov 7, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Sep 18, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jul 31, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jun 12, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
May 1, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Mar 20, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jan 31, 2024 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Dec 13, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Nov 1, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Sep 20, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jul 26, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jun 14, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
May 3, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Mar 22, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Feb 1, 2023 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Dec 14, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Nov 2, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Sep 21, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jul 27, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jun 15, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
May 4, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Mar 16, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jan 26, 2022 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Dec 15, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Nov 3, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Sep 22, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jul 28, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jun 16, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Apr 28, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Mar 17, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF
Jan 27, 2021 · Macro
FOMC Minutes PDF