European Central Bank (ECB) Reports & Analysis

Feb 5, 2026 · Macro

ECB Economic Bulletin

Feb 3, 2026 · Macro

The Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Fourth Quarter of 2025

Feb 2, 2026 · Macro

January 2026 euro area bank lending survey

Jan 28, 2026 · Macro

Do banks respond to their friends’ markets? Social spillovers in deposit pricing

We study how deposit rate shocks transmit across banking markets through digital social ties. Depositors’ inattention implies that households react to outside rate changes only when social networks make these changes salient, inducing connected banks to raise their own rates. Using merger-driven shocks to local deposit rates and county-level social connectedness, we show that small banks increase rates in response to shocks occurring in socially linked but geographically distant counties. Spillo

Jan 28, 2026 · Macro

What drives business expectations?

This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission’s business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for activity and prices. These composite BEI exhibit strong predictive power for near-term real GDP growth and GDP deflator inflation. To identify the underlying forces shaping expectations, we estimate sector-spec

Jan 28, 2026 · Macro

Isabel Schnabel: How to foster growth in Europe

Jan 27, 2026 · Macro

The EU’s CBAM: implications for member states and trading partners

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on 1 October 2023, introducing reporting requirements for importers of covered products and, from 2026, an obligation to pay a fee on the carbon content of imported goods. This paper uses indices of ad valorem tariffs to assess the incidence of the EU CBAM on both EU member states and the EU’s trading partners. Overall, the direct impact on EU countries’ trade is estimated to be small, adding 0.1 percent to the value of EU imports

Jan 27, 2026 · Macro

Survey on Credit Terms and Conditions in Euro Denominated Securities Financing and OTC Derivatives Markets (sesfod)

Jan 22, 2026 · Macro

Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation

Jan 22, 2026 · Macro

Environmental score and bond pricing: it better be good, it better be green

We provide empirical evidence that the pricing of green bonds tends to be highly sophisticated and based on a two-tiered approach. When buying a green bond, investors do not look only at the presence of a green label, but also consider additional characteristics of the bond that involve the environmental score of the issuer and the soundness of the underlying project. By comparing the yields at issuance of green bonds to those of a matched control sample of conventional bonds, our baseline speci

Jan 22, 2026 · Macro

Letter from the ECB President to Mr Bas Eickhout, MEP, on climate change and

Jan 19, 2026 · Macro

Understanding the inflation–output relationship across business cycle phases

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve’s target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important regime-specific asymmetries. The Taylor principle holds across all four regimes. The systematic policy response to the output gap weakens when inflation is below target but output remains above potential

Jan 15, 2026 · Macro

Bulgaria adopts the euro

On 1 January 2026 Bulgaria adopted the euro and became the 21st member of the euro area. For the Bulgarian economy this is expected to bring lower transaction and borrowing costs, as well as greater investor confidence. While Bulgaria has made significant progress in achieving convergence towards the euro area, continued reforms will help the country to fully benefit from euro adoption and support a smooth participation within the enlarged euro area.

Jan 15, 2026 · Macro

From Text to Trouble: Understanding the Limits of Text Derived Trade Policy Uncertainty Measures

Uncertainty surrounding trade policy has become a key factor shaping the investment and production decisions of firms. While text-based measures such as the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index are widely used to track these developments, their readings can be misinterpreted when treated as direct measures of uncertainty shocks. Keyword-driven co-mentions might, for example, inflate the index in periods of heightened trade tensions. This box introduces an alternative text-based measure, construc

Jan 15, 2026 · Macro

The household saving rate

This box provides updated evidence on developments in the household saving rate and its recent drivers. It shows that income and consumption have grown at similar rates since mid-2024, stabilising the saving rate at a level well above its pre-pandemic average. Model-based evidence suggests that lower real interest rates and rising real net wealth have increased incentives to consume, but that these effects have not fully offset the fact that savings continue to be supported by strong labour inco

Jan 15, 2026 · Macro

Holding on: labour hoarding and firms’ expectations

Firms that have faced adverse shocks to their business activity can decide to either shed labour or hold on to their workforce, i.e. “hoard labour”. This choice can be related to expectations about the future business outlook, prices and costs. Evidence suggests that there is a clear link, in particular, between recent labour hoarding decisions taken by firms and their labour cost growth expectations. With regard to the outlook for pricing, firms that have experienced a deterioration in their ov

Jan 14, 2026 · Macro

ECB Economic Bulletin