Four Key Investment Themes for 2026

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Morgan Stanley Research’s key investment themes for this year are Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World and Societal Shifts.

In 2025, Morgan Stanley’s thematic stock categories rose 38% and outperformed both the S&P 500 and the MSCI World. In 2025, Morgan Stanley’s thematic stock categories rose 38% and outperformed both the S&P 500 and the MSCI World. Companies’ and governments’ adaptation to the dynamics of a multipolar world is likely to accelerate this year. Companies’ and governments’ adaptation to the dynamics of a multipolar world is likely to accelerate this year. AI adoption should be a critical driver of stock performance in 2026. AI adoption should be a critical driver of stock performance in 2026. The Future of Energy theme now has a stronger political element as higher electricity bills could influence voters in different parts of the world. The Future of Energy theme now has a stronger political element as higher electricity bills could influence voters in different parts of the world. Societal Shifts include the impacts of AI on the job market, longevity, demographic challenges and shifting consumer preferences. Societal Shifts include the impacts of AI on the job market, longevity, demographic challenges and shifting consumer preferences. Every January, Morgan Stanley Research identifies the themes that represent the most compelling investment opportunities for the year ahead. This annual list is a result of deep discussions with macro and industry analysts to understand major trends across sectors and regions.

AI/Technology Diffusion The Future of Energy The Multipolar World Societal Shifts The first three themes carry over from last year as the investment opportunities endure, while Societal Shifts expands last year’s Longevity theme to capture AI-driven labor impacts as well as demographic and consumer-behavior transitions. Thematic investing has proven to be a powerful driver of alpha, or outperformance relative to benchmarks. In 2025, Morgan Stanley’s thematic stock categories gained 38% on average, outperforming the MSCI World by 16% and the S&P 500 by 27%. “Thematic analysis has long been central to how we think about markets, especially in periods of extreme volatility,” says Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. “A thematic lens helps us step back from the noise and focus on the structural forces reshaping economies, industries and societies.” Below is a closer look at the 2026 themes and the categories of stocks that investors should take into consideration for each. 1 The Multipolar World This was the top-performing thematic category in 2025. The three top-performing thematic categories in 2025 fell within the Multipolar World theme, demonstrating how geopolitical and industrial shifts are directly influencing markets. Governments continue adopting policies that go against pre-COVID-10 globalization trends, while companies and policymakers are prioritizing control of supply chains, access to energy, materials, defense capabilities and technology. “Policymakers are keen to promote their visions of national and economic security through less open commerce and more local control of supply chains and key technologies,” Byrd says. “Multinationals and sovereigns will adapt to this reality in an accelerating pace in 2026, with some facing tougher choices than others.” Stock Categories Within This Theme: Critical minerals, defense spending and tech localization. This was the top-performing thematic category in 2025. The three top-performing thematic categories in 2025 fell within the Multipolar World theme, demonstrating how geopolitical and industrial shifts are directly influencing markets. Governments continue adopting policies that go against pre-COVID-10 globalization trends, while companies and policymakers are prioritizing control of supply chains, access to energy, materials, defense capabilities and technology. “Policymakers are keen to promote their visions of national and economic security through less open commerce and more local control of supply chains and key technologies,” Byrd says. “Multinationals and sovereigns will adapt to this reality in an accelerating pace in 2026, with some facing tougher choices than others.” Stock Categories Within This Theme: Critical minerals, defense spending and tech localization. 2 AI/Technology Diffusion: AI capabilities should continue to expand at a non-linear pace, potentially faster than the ability of businesses, consumers and governments to adopt them. Differing adoption curves may become a defining driver of stock performance in 2026. “This theme has clearly matured,” Byrd says. “A critical evolution is our view that compute demand is likely to exceed supply, even as software and hardware become more efficient.” Stock Categories Within This Theme: AI enablers, AI adopters, the Humanoid 100 and AI infrastructure. AI capabilities should continue to expand at a non-linear pace, potentially faster than the ability of businesses, consumers and governments to adopt them. Differing adoption curves may become a defining driver of stock performance in 2026. “This theme has clearly matured,” Byrd says. “A critical evolution is our view that compute demand is likely to exceed supply, even as software and hardware become more efficient.” Stock Categories Within This Theme: AI enablers, AI adopters, the Humanoid 100 and AI infrastructure. 3 The Future of Energy: AI infrastructure—particularly data centers— is driving a rapid surge in global e