Business & Markets
U.S. consumer confidence falls to lowest level since 2014
Both the present-situation and expectations measures weakened. The survey captures views through Sept. 23, but sentiment is not a direct measure of household spending.
Executive summary
- The reading: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August, its lowest level since April 2014, according to the organization and independent reporting.[1][2][3]
- Where sentiment weakened: The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3 and the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6. Consumers cited prices, goods and services costs, and oil and gas prices; the survey also found deteriorating views of business and labor conditions.[1][2][3]
- The limit: Responses were collected from Sept. 1 through 23. The index measures attitudes and expectations, not actual purchases, and Chicago Fed researchers say its historical relationship with consumer spending has weakened since 2020.[1][4]
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August. The organization said the reading was on a 1985=100 scale; the Associated Press and Reuters reported that it was the lowest since April 2014. The result came in below the 89.2 median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.[1][2][3]
Both parts of the index declined. The Present Situation Index, based on views of current business and labor-market conditions, lost 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which tracks the outlook for income, business and jobs over the next six months, fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline.[1]
The Conference Board said consumers’ written comments referred more often to prices, the cost of goods and services, and oil and gas. Comments about war and conflict eased from August but remained elevated, while respondents also mentioned politics, trade and employment. The organization reported that views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024.[1][2]
The survey’s preliminary responses were collected online from Sept. 1 through 23. That window included a Federal Reserve rate increase and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but it does not capture events after Sept. 23. The Conference Board’s release describes a shift in how respondents feel and what they expect; it does not report that household spending fell by a corresponding amount.[1]
That distinction matters when interpreting the index as an economic signal. A 2026 analysis by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago researchers found that the long-running relationship between the Conference Board’s confidence measure and real personal consumption growth weakened after 2020. Their rolling correlation estimate averaged 0.60 before 2020 and was around 0.35 in the latest period shown, through early 2026. The reading adds timely evidence about household mood, but actual spending and labor data are needed to determine whether that pessimism is translating into a pullback.[4]
The September report also found that consumers’ average one-year inflation expectation rose to 6.1%, while the median reached 5.1%. Those are expectations recorded in the survey, not a forecast from the Federal Reserve or a measure of inflation already experienced by households.[1]