Business & Markets
U.S. hiring slowed to 29,000 jobs in September as unemployment edged to 4.2%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payroll employment changed little. Its revisions and 12-month average add context, but one monthly report does not establish a recession or determine the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Executive summary
- The headline: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, while the unemployment rate moved from 4.1% to 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics characterized both as little changed. It said payroll employment had averaged gains of 45,000 a month over the preceding 12 months.[1][2]
- Earlier estimates were cut: The BLS revised July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000 and August from 162,000 to 133,000. Together, the two months were 60,000 lower than previously reported. Monthly payroll estimates are preliminary and routinely revised as more information arrives.[1][2][3]
- What it does—and does not—show: The report is evidence of subdued recent hiring, not by itself a recession diagnosis. The BLS said the unemployment rate had stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March, and labor-force participation was unchanged at 61.8% in September.[1]
Employers added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, the BLS reported, and the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%. The agency said payroll employment and unemployment changed little. The number of unemployed people was 7.1 million, also little changed, while labor-force participation held at 61.8%.[1]
Those figures come from two different surveys: the payroll estimate counts jobs at employers, while the household survey measures people’s labor-force status. They can diverge in a given month. The 29,000 increase is therefore not a count of people who personally moved from unemployment into work.[1]
The September gain was below the 45,000 monthly average for the prior 12 months. The Associated Press and Reuters both described the release as weaker than economists had expected, though published forecasts varied. The observed payroll count and the forecasters’ estimates are separate measures.[1][2][3]
The BLS revised July’s payroll change from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 decline, and August’s from a 162,000 gain to 133,000. The combined revision reduced the two months’ reported employment growth by 60,000. Revisions are part of the monthly process as additional employer reports and updated seasonal adjustments become available; they do not mean the earlier releases were final counts.[1][2][3]
Taken with September, the latest release describes a soft three-month stretch, while the BLS’s longer comparison remains a 45,000 average monthly gain over the prior year. The monthly series can still be revised again. Neither the preliminary September figure nor the retrospective revisions settle whether hiring will strengthen or weaken in coming months.[1]
The BLS said employment changed little across major industries. Health care added 17,000 jobs, below its average monthly gain of 33,000 over the prior year. Government employment fell by 17,000, and employment services declined by 14,300. These are sector-level changes in the payroll survey, not a measure of the number of people who lost or found work across the entire economy.[1]
Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year; the average workweek remained 34.4 hours. Those wage and hours measures describe workers on private nonfarm payrolls. They do not alone establish how household purchasing power changed, which also depends on prices and other income.[1]
A 29,000 payroll gain and downward revisions can sharpen concern that employers are hiring cautiously. But the unemployment rate’s 4.2% reading remained within the 4.1%–4.3% range the BLS says has held since March, and participation was steady. The release offers mixed evidence about the labor market’s direction rather than a single decisive break.[1][2][3]
Labor conditions are part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, so investors and policymakers may weigh the report alongside inflation, spending and other data. One employment release cannot reveal the Fed’s next decision, and this report does not prove that a recession has begun. The next monthly employment report is scheduled for November 6, according to the BLS calendar.[1]